Collection Occupational hygiene, Issue 28, 1992 year

Main trends and prognosis of morbidity with temporary disability in Ukraine

L. A. Dobrovolsky

doi

Kiev Research Institute of Occupational Hygiene and Occupational Diseases

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Research on forecasting in medicine and health care is carried out in Ukraine within the framework of the Scheme for the development and deployment of the productive forces of Ukraine until 2010, the Comprehensive Program of Scientific and Technological Progress until 2015, in the sections "Public Health Protection" [1]. In these sections, the issues of the influence of scientific and technological progress on the state of health of the population are considered, a forecast of the main indicators of public health and health care, the development of medical science is given. An integral part of the section "Health protection of the population", its subsection is "Health protection of workers."

Establishing a relationship between the influence of factors of the working environment and morbidity, as well as predicting this relationship is one of the leading problems of occupational health.

Our studies of the trends in morbidity with temporary disability (TDD) have shown that since 1960, a gradual decrease has been registered, which occurs in waves. When studying ZVUT in the regions of the Ukrainian SSR for the period from 1979 to 1989, it was noted that the lowest rate of decline in incidence was recorded in the South and South-East regions, and the highest - in the North-East region.

We have made an attempt to predict the REM in Ukraine for the subsequent period up to 2015 based on the extrapolation of the trend of its decline from 1969 to 1989. The least squares method was used. It has been established that, while maintaining the existing trends, the ZVUT in 2015 will amount to (395 ± 83) days per 100 workers with a maximum forecast error of 21%. This clearly shows that it is not always advisable to use a straight-line relationship in predicting the incidence.

There is an opinion that forecasts made for more than 10 years, as a rule, are useless due to inaccuracy and significant errors [4]. Some researchers believe that mathematical models are more accurate, in comparison with linear regression equations, reflect the relationship between incidence and time, but the prediction made on their basis turns out to be unreliable and often erroneous [3, 4]. We believe that forecasting should use methods that take into account the cyclical dynamics of morbidity.

References

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  4. Dobrovolsky L. A., Vitte P. N. Effect of occupational and other risk factors on the health of agricultural workers // Occup. Health Problems in rural areas //, 1st Finnish-Soviet Symposium Reports: Kuopio, Finland, 21—25 August, 1989. — 1990. — P. 28—40.